Is There a Glass Ceiling Effect? Evidence from a Stock-Flow Analysis

Current research has established that women and minorities are underrepresented among managers, especially among top-level managers. However, studies have not tested whether the glass ceiling effect exists in the strict sense as a disadvantage in advancing to top-level positions in organizational hierarchies. This study discusses the criteria for identifying the glass ceiling effect and tests its presence using a stock-flow analysis. Drawing on panel data from a nationally representative sample of scientists and engineers, I compare rates of upward mobility and downward mobility for six demographic groups by gender and race. Results show that while upward mobility plays the major role in white women and Asian American women’s under-representation in management, the disadvantage of minority (Asian, black, and Hispanic) male workers exists only in their greater likelihood of leaving managerial positions. In addition, I show through synthetic cohort analysis that labor market conditions have improved for women and minorities.